"How France's far-right National Rally plans to secure its absolute majority in parliament":

The upcoming second round of France's snap legislative elections on July 7th presents a crucial opportunity for the far-right National Rally (RN) party to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Buoyed by its strong performance in the first round, where it won 33.1% of the vote, the RN is now the clear frontrunner. However, the party led by Jordan Bardella will have to fend off challenges from both the leftist New Popular Front coalition and President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble group if it hopes to achieve its goal.

A key part of the RN's strategy is to position itself as the sole defender of democracy and the will of the people against the "chaos of the far-left." Bardella has been critical of the "somewhat unnatural alliance" between Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the founder of the far-left France Unbowed party who is a divisive figure even within the New Popular Front. The RN is eager to paint Mélenchon as the likely choice for prime minister if the left-wing coalition prevails, knowing that many voters are wary of him.

To counter this threat, the New Popular Front and Ensemble have employed a tactical withdrawal of candidates in constituencies where the RN has a strong chance of winning. Over 130 New Popular Front candidates and more than 80 from Macron's camp have stepped aside, in an effort to unite the anti-RN vote and prevent the far-right from securing an outright majority.

Bardella has criticized this "unnatural alliance," accusing Macron of "collaborating with a violent far-left movement." He has proposed a televised debate between himself and Mélenchon, hoping to further highlight the left-wing leader's divisiveness. However, Mélenchon has not yet been designated as the New Popular Front's candidate for prime minister, with other coalition members like the Ecologists' Marine Tondelier emphasizing that the position would need to be chosen unanimously.

The RN's campaign has also included vicious attacks on members of France Unbowed, as the party seeks to demonize the left and portray itself as the sole guardian of French values and stability. Bardella and his colleagues have repeatedly framed the choice as being between "Mr. Mélenchon as prime minister and us," in a bid to galvanize their base and sway undecided voters.

Despite the RN's confidence, the party's path to an absolute majority is not guaranteed. The tactical withdrawals by the left-wing and centrist parties could prove effective in denying the far-right the outright victory it craves. Moreover, the internal divisions within the New Popular Front, particularly around the role of Mélenchon, present a potential vulnerability that the RN will surely seek to exploit.

Ultimately, the second round of the French legislative elections on July 7th will be a decisive moment in the country's political landscape. The outcome will not only determine the composition of the National Assembly, but also send a powerful signal about the direction France is willing to take – whether towards the nationalist populism of the RN or the more progressive vision of the left-wing coalition. The stakes could not be higher, and the battle for France's future is about to reach its climax.

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